A stalled cold front will trigger excessive rainfall across the Mid-south U.S. to the Carolinas midweek through the weekend. GFS indicates >5 in. of rain in Arkansas and Tennessee while ECM projects higher amounts. Flooding is expected with serval damaging wind events as the heavy rains break the recent heat.

Europe soil moisture anomalies continue to indicate a drying trend due to the ongoing heatwave and attendant dryness. The precipitation outlook across central and southern Europe through the next 4 weeks remains mostly dry.

NOAA issues new climate long-lead probability forecasts which include a dry and mostly hot late warm season projection in the Central U.S. causing drought to expand to the Midwest States.

Medium-range forecasts trend wetter across the central Great Plains and particularly the U.S. Corn Belt as we try to deter spreading drought caused by the current hot/dry weather pattern. However, a pattern change featuring an upper-level ridge over the Midwest U.S. is seen in 15 days.