The ongoing severe weather event in the southern states continues to track eastward. According to the HRRR model, peak lightning intensity is around 9PM CDT near Baton Rouge, LA and northeastward to the east of Jackson, MS. The maximum intensity of the squall line is at 11PM CDT stretching from just east of New Orleans northeastward to Birmingham. A lot of severe weather at night – an extremely dangerous combination.

During March, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) was strong and caused anomalous convection in the far western equatorial Pacific region. The rising air currents associated with the convection is replaced from the east by increasing trade winds which has up-welled cooler subsurface waters and caused the central/east-central equatorial Pacific to cool restrengthening La Nina.

A pattern change is indicated next week in Europe. For 2-3 weeks Europe has been mostly mild and very dry while the Black Sea region (including Ukraine) cold and snowy. Next week, the Scandinavia index flips negative and a ferocious upper trough pushes much cooler air across the northern half of Europe coupled with an impressive storm track across U.K. and into Western Russia including Ukraine.

The NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast indicates potential for excessive amount centered on the Mid-South U.S. Included is several days of severe weather!