A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for the Mid-Atlantic States to 2PM EDT. A new watch for this afternoon extending across the northern Mid-Atlantic States is likely! The HRRR model identifies the axis of the squall line across west-central Virginia to far northeast South Carolina at 10AM. The squall line produces a tornado risk, wind gusts to 6-65 mph, heavy rain and moderate lightning frequencies. By 1PM EDT, the squall line reaches the Baltimore/Washington to Richmond stretch.

Since the middle 1990’s, the “activeness” of the North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity has generally been above too much above normal due to the long-term warm cycle of AMO and the lack of El Nino presence (only 24% of the months from 1995-2022).

East-central/East China wheat-growing areas have turned much drier in recent weeks. Last week no rainfall was reported in this region and 15-day outlooks maintain the dry concern.

Projected by using a SSTA-based constructed analog, the prevailing upper air pattern across North America for meteorological summer and autumn 2022 plus winter 2022-23.