Currently, the sunspot number of solar cycle 25 for May 2022 continues well-ahead of the original forecast. The original forecast by NASA repeated the relatively weak solar cycle 24 signature. However, the monthly sunspot number has continued to out-perform the original forecast dating back near 2 years.

An area of low pressure is situated over far Southeast Mexico and is expected to consolidate into a more organized center in about 48 hours off the north coast of Belize. At that time, ECMWF indicates this system is likely a tropical depression. This system drifts north-northeastward on the back side of the North Atlantic subtropical ridge late this week and crosses water sufficient to allow intensification to a tropical storm.

Last week the Nino SSTA regions warmed as moderate intensity La Nina weakened slightly. The slight weakening trend is likely to continue although the La Nina climate pattern is likely to hold for 2022.