Two Major Arctic Outbreaks During One Winter Season
02/20/2025, 5:48 am EST
Charts of the day: Springtime severe weather outlook.
Discussion: Severe weather season in the U.S. begins in March. This year, based on the Climate Impact Company constructed analog precipitation forecast for the U.S., the favored areas for severe thunderstorms are primarily the Gulf Coast States with a weaker second area centered on Kansas. In April, two zones of severe weather are forecast. One zone is centered on Nebraska with a prominent severe weather regime centered on the Tennessee Valley. During May, much of the Great Plains is at risk for above normal severe weather and adding Virginia.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid February March 1-5, 2025 (24-hour change right)
Discussion: A warm start to March except staying chilly in New England.
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid March 6-10, 2025 (24-hour change right)
Discussion: The warmer than normal pattern continues. In a significant change, the 11-15-day forecast is adjusted much warmer since yesterday east of the Divide.
U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast
Discussion: Thunderstorm activity is likely from Kansas to the Gulf States in the 6-10-day period while the Northwest and East Coast are wetter than normal in the 11-15-day period.
Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid March 11-15, 2025
Discussion: The extended range forecast remains very warm centered on the Great Plains. California trend is somewhat wetter.