La Nina BUT Many Ongoing Caveats
01/06/2025, 2:49 pm EST
Dramatic Cooling East Pacific Subsurface in December; La Nina Lasts to Q2/2025
01/09/2025, 2:09 pm EST
Charts of the day: DEC-24 Eurasia snow Cover & JAN/FEB 2021/2023 Temperature Anomalies
Discussion: Snow cover across Eurasia during DEC-24 was below normal primarily due to lack of snow in West/Southeast Europe to the Black Sea region. The monthly anomaly is similar with DEC-20 and DEC-22. During JAN/FEB of the 2 analog years a warm bias was notable across Southeast Europe where snow cover stayed below normal. The week 2-4 forecast is dry across Europe. The current daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals significant drying in Eastern Europe.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 19-25, 2025: Mild and dry Europe.
Discussion: A buoyant upper ridge pattern keeps most of Europe warmer and drier than normal. Compensating very wet regime is east of Caspian Sea. The forecast trend is warmer.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid January 26-February 1, 2025: Mild and dry Europe pattern continues.
Discussion: Mild weather continues across Eurasia and the forecast trend is warmer. Much of Europe stays dry.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid February 2-8, 2025: Staying mild.
Discussion: Persistence is maintained in the early February forecast.