Over-the-weekend all forecast models indicated a harsh dry trend across much of Europe through the next 15 days including the ECM ENS. The issue is a stalled wet upper trough off Western Europe compensated for by a broad upper ridge pattern in Europe.

The CIC-CA outlook for NOV/DEC/JAN 2022-23 indicates anomalous warmth across the Canadian Prairies, Great Plains and East-central U.S. plus the Southwest States. New England and Southeast Canada are also milder than normal. By comparison, the NOAA/CPC outlook indicates the likelihood of warmer than normal temperature across California, the Southwest U.S., and the South States plus the East Seaboard.

Rain-soaked soils across southwest into southeast Brazil receive more rainfall this week. In the 6-10-day period this entire area turns dry with no rain expected. However, in the 11-15-day period, the forecast trend is for the rain to return to this important Brazil crop area.