Latest week 2-4 outlook for Europe reveals steady increasing wet risk to evolve in September leading to a fade of the historic summer of 2022 drought pattern.

The summer 2022 China drought is yet another example of large areas of super-warm SSTA (off the East Coast of Asia) and their correlation to drought-producing summertime upper-level high-pressure ridge areas. A similar phenomenon was observed in Europe this summer season.

Across Greenland/Iceland a super intense upper trough formed in May and has persistent since that time. To compensate for this upper trough, an amplified ridge developed over Europe to produce rapidly developing drought with attendant hot weather.

The North Atlantic basin is quiet through mid-August (since July 1st) due to the subsidence pattern in the deep tropics and subtropics in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The subsidence is well-represented by the low relative humidity in the middle atmosphere (600 MB) in these regions.