The active monsoon regime unloaded excessive rainfall across Northern Queensland and the North Coast of Australia during the week ending February 10. Moderate to heavy rain also occurred in east/southeast New South Wales and the southeast coast of Victoria.

The ECM 500 MB anomalies 15-day forecast indicates the dynamic upper air pattern continues. The subtropical ridge area splits, returning to home base, across the MHW locations. In-between the split, conditions favoring heavy rain to suppress the intense heat develops in Northeast Argentina/Uruguay centered on the 6-10-day period.

This week, strong subtropical high pressure stretching across mid-continent from marine heat waves either side of South Americ render extreme heat from Argentina to Southeast Brazil. However, latest forecasts split the subtropical ridge allowing weak low pressure to form over Bolivia which lifts tropical rains from northwest continent southeastward into Argentina during the medium range.

A titanic high-pressure area extending eastward from a marine heat wave west of South America causes extreme heat over the next 5-7 days in Argentina coupled with dryness likely to accelerate drought conditions into late summer.