NOAA/CPC probabilistic climate forecasts indicate several high impact hazards ahead for mid-to-late summer 2024. Most striking is the strong probability of persistent heat across the eastern third of the U.S. and Interior West during July.

The historic rainfall flooding Southern Florida during the past week is easing. “Historic” in that the extreme rain was not associated with a tropical cyclone. The low-pressure zone and wet trade winds are shifting westward this week. However, this time a tropical cyclone will enhance the rainfall and bring flooding to the northwest and west coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

A conservative projection of sea level height anomalies across the Gulf of Mexico now is in the 2-6-inch range. When tropical cyclones pass across the higher sea level, the wedge of water pushed inland by a storm surge is considerably higher.

Upper ocean heat anomalies in the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean remain warmer than normal but at less intensity as indicated 2 months ago. Meanwhile, cooling in the equatorial East Pacific subsurface is impressive but not realized at the ocean surface as ENSO has settled into neutral phase.