The latest week 2-5 outlook across the North Atlantic tropics indicates above normal risk of a tropical system across the western North Atlantic basin. The 27C SST required to sustain an early season TC is farther north than normal as the tropical cyclone season is about to start.

NOAA/NHC issues their most active seasonal forecast since outlooks began earlier this century. The active forecast follows a similar theme with previous outlooks issued by CSU, TSR U.K., and CIC. Given the number of major hurricanes forecast for this year, monitoring the 86/87F SST (where major hurricanes are most likely) becomes extremely important!

A major severe weather event struck the U.S. Corn Belt yesterday with nearly 500 severe weather damage reports collected by NOAA/SPC including 23 tornado reports. Central Iowa to southwestern Wisconsin were the hardest hit. Flooding from excessive rainfall also occurred in this stretch.

In the Central U.S., the 15-day forecast trend is wetter. The GFS ENS indicates 3-5-in. rainfall amount across the Upper Midwest and Mid-south States. Severe weather is involved with the wet forecast and likely forces agriculture delays. The 24-hour change is wetter for both heavy rain regions.