Although initialized 5-6 MB too strong, the HWRF model indicates potential for Beryl to intensify last minute to a minimal category-2 hurricane at landfall around dawn tomorrow morning on the central Texas Coast. The environment just off the Texas coast features little or no upper wind shear and a warm 30C ocean surface to warrant the rapid intensification.

The eastern equatorial Pacific has warmed. The Nino34 SSTA has returned close to the El Nino threshold. In the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean east of the Dateline, the cool anomaly which peaked in April and implied La Nina development ahead has lost considerable intensity.

High pressure stretches from the hot weather source region across North Africa through the Black Sea region to West-central Russia causing a dry and hot pattern that worsens drought in Southwest Europe to Southwest Russia the first half of July.

ECM appears to have the best handle on the long-range forecast track of Beryl keeping the system moving westward south of the powerful subtropical ridge to the north. The NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast has shifted the 4-5-day track farther south into the central Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night.