The midday 12Z GFS temperature bias for the 6-10-day period during the past 30 days is marginally warm in Southern Canada and the North-central U.S. but overall reasonable skill. In the 11-15-day period, the polar region is much too cool while forecast bias near the U.S./Canada border has averaged too warm.

Meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) 2024 remains forecast warmer than normal for all but North Dakota with highest hot weather probability likely from the Interior Northwest to Western Texas and in New England. The precipitation outlook is biased wet in the East and Southeast U.S. while West-central States including the western Great Plains are drier than normal.

Heavy rain has caused flooding in Russia’s Kurgan region in recent days. This part of the Russia spring wheat growing area. Additional flooding is expected due to the rising Tobol River through this region.

During the past 14 days, the 11-15-day rainfall forecasts across the U.S. AG Belt and Europe/Western Russia have shown moderate to dramatic wet/dry bias. In the U.S., forecasts have been too wet across much of the Great Plains and Tennessee Valley (and vicinity) and too dry in the Midwest States.