The historic rainfall flooding Southern Florida during the past week is easing. “Historic” in that the extreme rain was not associated with a tropical cyclone. The low-pressure zone and wet trade winds are shifting westward this week. However, this time a tropical cyclone will enhance the rainfall and bring flooding to the northwest and west coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

A conservative projection of sea level height anomalies across the Gulf of Mexico now is in the 2-6-inch range. When tropical cyclones pass across the higher sea level, the wedge of water pushed inland by a storm surge is considerably higher.

Upper ocean heat anomalies in the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean remain warmer than normal but at less intensity as indicated 2 months ago. Meanwhile, cooling in the equatorial East Pacific subsurface is impressive but not realized at the ocean surface as ENSO has settled into neutral phase.

NOAA/NHC identified an area of disorganized low pressure southwest of Tampa, FL earlier today forecast to drift northeastward, crossing the Florida Peninsula, and re-emerging off the northeast Florida Coast within 36 hours. Strengthening prior to striking the Florida West Coast is unlikely due to upper shear although SST is a buoyant 86F and supports organization.