Regarding ENSO, the equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat anomalies stay marginally warm in JUN-25. Implied is no risk of La Nina return, although NCEP CFS V2 is boldly forecasting La Nina for late 2025, with marginal support pointed toward El Nino.

The 12Z GFS indicates a cool/wet upper trough moving into West/North Europe to end the recent heatwave and push the heat toward the Black Sea region (Fig. 1). Unfortunately, Western Europe is likely to turn hot again in the 11-15-day period.

In South America, a cold burst is forecast early-to-middle week. The air mass is not expected to reach the Brazil coffee growing areas. The coldest morning is Tuesday while Wednesday morning is nearly as cold.

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast valid for July through October is updated. The forecast is based on correlation with ongoing SSTA regimes and their forecast through Q3/2025 by ECMWF. The marine heatwaves (MHW) either side of South America are leading contributors to the winter pattern supporting upper-level high-pressure ridge areas with a compensating semi-permanent upper trough over the continent capable of generating cold air delivering the chill to Brazil.