The eastern equatorial Pacific has warmed. The Nino34 SSTA has returned close to the El Nino threshold. In the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean east of the Dateline, the cool anomaly which peaked in April and implied La Nina development ahead has lost considerable intensity.

High pressure stretches from the hot weather source region across North Africa through the Black Sea region to West-central Russia causing a dry and hot pattern that worsens drought in Southwest Europe to Southwest Russia the first half of July.

ECM appears to have the best handle on the long-range forecast track of Beryl keeping the system moving westward south of the powerful subtropical ridge to the north. The NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast has shifted the 4-5-day track farther south into the central Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night.

Identifying the location and intensity of the upper shear axis is the first consideration when the tropics turn busy and tropical cyclone models project intensifying events. Of course, Tropical Disturbance 95L is the primary issue. The immediate environment is favorable for development of 95L to a tropical cyclone withing 24-48 hours due to light shear and 83-84F SST. However, a moderate shear axis extends into the Caribbean Sea with a second axis well northwest of 95L.