The latest collection of dynamic models forecasting the Nino34 SSTA through the end of 2024 continue to show evolution of weak La Nina although reliable forecasters ECMWF and Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) maintain neutral ENSO phase.

The North Africa climate pattern of the past 2-3 months is unusually hot and dry. Increasing trade winds south of intensifying subtropical high pressure is pushing Saharan Dust into the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic suppressing tropical cyclone development.

Low pressure settles over Texas for 2-3 weeks inspiring wet weather to suppress summer heat. The rain can be frequently heavy leading to flooding. As mid-August approaches, tropical cyclone risk to the Texas coast returns.

Although initialized 5-6 MB too strong, the HWRF model indicates potential for Beryl to intensify last minute to a minimal category-2 hurricane at landfall around dawn tomorrow morning on the central Texas Coast. The environment just off the Texas coast features little or no upper wind shear and a warm 30C ocean surface to warrant the rapid intensification.