U.S. population weight CDD for May 2024 was 117 which is very close to the 10-year normal (118). Natural gas traders are generally more reliant on the 10-year normal as a reference therefore May is considered a near normal cooling demand month to start the 2024 warm season. In June, due to the incoming Midwest trough, the CDD forecast is cut to 230 which is substantially below the 10-year normal of 252.

The past 7 days have featured prohibitive dryness across Eastern Europe, Western Russia, and into the Northern Black Sea region. The ECM 10-day rainfall anomaly outlook indicates the Black Sea region to Southwest Russia stays mostly dry while Europe showery conditions persist and reach far Western Russia.

The latest week 2-5 outlook across the North Atlantic tropics indicates above normal risk of a tropical system across the western North Atlantic basin. The 27C SST required to sustain an early season TC is farther north than normal as the tropical cyclone season is about to start.

NOAA/NHC issues their most active seasonal forecast since outlooks began earlier this century. The active forecast follows a similar theme with previous outlooks issued by CSU, TSR U.K., and CIC. Given the number of major hurricanes forecast for this year, monitoring the 86/87F SST (where major hurricanes are most likely) becomes extremely important!