News
09/02/2024, 10:35 am EDT

Steady +SOI Supports Trend Toward La Nina

A steady and intense positive phase of the southern oscillation index (+SOI) has developed since mid-August causing trade winds across the eastern equatorial Pacific to increase and begin to up-well cool subsurface water to turn the Nino34, Nino3, and Nino12 SSTA cooler during the past 7-10 days.
08/30/2024, 5:56 am EDT

Sneaky Wet in Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil

The largest surprise in forecast models is the increase in rainfall in the 15-day outlook for Northeast Argentina, Uruguay, and Southeast Brazil. The AIFS forecasts consistent rains piling to several to 6 inches due to a quasi-stationary frontal boundary in the region.
08/29/2024, 1:37 pm EDT

Deluge of Rain Ahead on the Texas Coast

Massive amounts of thunderstorm activity is percolating in the western Gulf of Mexico. A widening area of thunderstorms along a low-pressure trough emerges, lasts for many days, and produces 15-20 in. of rain near the Texas/Louisiana coast.
08/28/2024, 5:07 am EDT

Expanding Europe Heatwave

The southeast quadrant of Europe to Southwest Russia has averaged 3-6C warmer than normal during the past week with attendant widespread dryness. The latest 15-day forecasts widen the anomalous heat and dryness in Europe to Western Russia!