The recent heavy rainfall event across Southern Florida shifting westward and into Texas enhanced by Tropical Storm Alberto created plentiful cloudiness, rainfall, and windy conditions to cause the Gulf of Mexico basin to cool to near normal. The 30-day change in Gulf of Mexico basin SST is a remarkable -1.08C.

NOAA/CPC probabilistic climate forecasts indicate several high impact hazards ahead for mid-to-late summer 2024. Most striking is the strong probability of persistent heat across the eastern third of the U.S. and Interior West during July.

The historic rainfall flooding Southern Florida during the past week is easing. “Historic” in that the extreme rain was not associated with a tropical cyclone. The low-pressure zone and wet trade winds are shifting westward this week. However, this time a tropical cyclone will enhance the rainfall and bring flooding to the northwest and west coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

A conservative projection of sea level height anomalies across the Gulf of Mexico now is in the 2-6-inch range. When tropical cyclones pass across the higher sea level, the wedge of water pushed inland by a storm surge is considerably higher.