The southern oscillation index was neutral much of the past 1-2 weeks correlated to easing trade winds. However, +SOI is forecast to re-emerge. The subsurface waters in the equatorial East Pacific have cooled significantly the past 30 days indicating increased energy to fuel La Nina if trade winds become established.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine strengthens to a tropical storm by tonight and becomes a hurricane once reaching the southeast Gulf late tomorrow. The HWRF model takes Helene to a strong category-4 major hurricane in the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Thursday just prior to landfall.

During recent years, the (certain) catalyst to a category-4/category-5 major hurricane has been travel of the tropical cyclone across 31C/87F (or warmer) SST. Right now, the SST for the most likely path of Helene is 30C/86F certainly sufficient to fuel a category-3 major hurricane. The SST across the northeast Gulf of Mexico is a scary 0.75C to 1.75C warmer than normal. 

A tropical cyclone is forecast to generate in the western Caribbean Sea in a couple days and then turn northwest and north becoming a hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico heading toward the Big Bend Area in northwest Florida. GFS, ECM, and AIFS are in reasonable agreement with landfall but vary widely with where the storm tracks once inland.