A tropical cyclone is likely in the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Tropical cyclone models take Tropical Disturbance 91L from the Bay of Campeche northwestward with gradual development to a tropical storm in 48-72 hours arriving off the northeast coast of Mexico followed by a north-northeast turn and continuing to intensify, possibly to a hurricane, before reaching the northwest Gulf of Mexico Coast Friday morning,

The ongoing impressive marine heat wave (MHW) across the Norwegian Sea continues and the persistent high-pressure ridge well-correlated to this feature remains locked-in across Northwest Eurasia according to the ECMWF “monthlies”.

Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight CDD forecasts for meteorological summer 2024 issued during late May/early June were closest to the observed values. As time went on, subsequent forecasts were much warmer propelled by fear of drought-induced heat in the Central U.S. and anomalous warmth in high energy demand areas of the East U.S. fueled by very warm SSTA off the Atlantic Coast.

A steady and intense positive phase of the southern oscillation index (+SOI) has developed since mid-August causing trade winds across the eastern equatorial Pacific to increase and begin to up-well cool subsurface water to turn the Nino34, Nino3, and Nino12 SSTA cooler during the past 7-10 days.