In the latest (GFS) 15-day outlook, wet weather consolidates in Southwest Europe with a new wet zone emerging across the Black Sea region. The GFS indicates potential for excessive rainfall along the coastal portions of the Black Sea. However, limited rainfall reaches parched Southwest Russia. The GFS is the wettest of the operational models for both regions.

A wet pattern is ahead in South America. The ECM week-2 outlook valid for next week indicates two areas of heavy rain. One area is in Argentina and the second across central/northeast Brazil. Both zones are encountering drought and need rainfall. ECM indicates gradual regeneration of a drier pattern holding off until November.

The HWRF and HMON models indicate an extremely dangerous storm well into the category-4 major hurricane intensity with minimum pressure in the 923-924 MB range as the storm is offshore and approaching the central West Coast of Florida.

The NOAA/CPC Sep. 22-28 rainfall amount observation analysis across the U.S. identifies the excessive rain associated with Category-4 Major Hurricane Helene. Note the influence of topography on the observation results.