News
10/26/2024, 10:19 am EDT

Early November Tropical Cyclone Risk Update

After a series of GFS model runs indicating an East U.S. Coast tropical cyclone risk in early November, possibly disrupting voting day, forecast models are now in agreement the tropical system is likely to stay away from U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. The new forecast creates another problem, a heavy rainfall episode in early November centered on Texas and the southern Great Plains.
10/22/2024, 9:08 am EDT

Early November Tropical Cyclone Trouble Brewing

An ALERT for tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean Sea remains valid for next week. The last two GFS model runs develop a Northern Caribbean Sea hurricane which travels toward Florida and possibly the U.S. East Coast in early November.
10/21/2024, 6:11 am EDT

Negative Pacific North America Index COULD Bring Great Plains Rain

On and off Great Plains wet weather for late October/early November is reliant on evolution of a negative phase Pacific North America (-PNA) index pattern. If -PNA develops, an upper trough cools the West and forces southerly flow out of the western Gulf of Mexico to interact with cold fronts in the Great Plains and cause rainfall.