In the subsurface, the cool fuel to up-well to the surface and cause La Nina onset is trending weaker. The anomalous cool water in the equatorial East Pacific is about half (or less) the intensity of most La Nina episodes.

The 5-day forecast has a different flavor this morning. Rafael remains forecast to stay well offshore. However, the storm slows down in the west-central Gulf of Mexico and is susceptible to a period of southwest shear ahead of a Central U.S. trough to briefly push Rafael northeastward over the weekend before lower atmospheric steering on the east side of a Mexico high pressure area guides Rafael back toward the southwest.

Rafael will turn westward over the next several days as a high-pressure area over the Florida Panhandle extends westward, albeit weakly to guide Rafael. By late weekend/early next week, high-pressure builds to the west of the storm providing a steering current that pushes Rafael toward Mexico.

After tomorrow, forecast confidence of where Hurricane Rafael travels is low (and lowering). The issue is the position of the subtropical ridge north and northeast of Rafael this weekend. If the ridge weakens, Rafael turns northward. If the ridge maintains strength, a westward drift continues and Rafael may be stronger.