The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast valid for July through October is updated. The forecast is based on correlation with ongoing SSTA regimes and their forecast through Q3/2025 by ECMWF. The marine heatwaves (MHW) either side of South America are leading contributors to the winter pattern supporting upper-level high-pressure ridge areas with a compensating semi-permanent upper trough over the continent capable of generating cold air delivering the chill to Brazil.

The CFS V2 July 2025 climate forecast across Europe and Western Russia projects an upper-level high pressure system cresting over the Eastern Europe/Western Russia border. Previously issued ECM “weeklies” indicate the high pressure is slightly eastward. The sensible climate forecast projects widespread hot and dry weather across Central and East Europe, Ukraine, and Southwest Russia.

The 12Z GFS maintains an over-the-weekend cold risk into Southeast Brazil on TUE/WED morning. The cold risk reaches the southern Brazil coffee-growing areas each morning. Some damage is possible given the GFS outlook.

Erick intensified rapidly to a category-4 major hurricane overnight approaching the south coast of Mexico. A leading contributor to the rapid intensification was the available upper ocean heat which increased dramatically on approach to the coast as indicated by the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) to 86-87F.