An area of low-pressure forms near or south of a frontal boundary off the Southeast U.S. Coast late this weekend and gradually strengthens over the warm waters near the Gulf Stream. A subtropical or tropical storm may develop.

AIFS delivers some much-needed rainfall to the southern sugarcane growing region in Southern Brazil beginning this weekend with a 2-day event projected followed by a second more widespread rainfall arriving later next week.

A tropical cyclone is likely in the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Tropical cyclone models take Tropical Disturbance 91L from the Bay of Campeche northwestward with gradual development to a tropical storm in 48-72 hours arriving off the northeast coast of Mexico followed by a north-northeast turn and continuing to intensify, possibly to a hurricane, before reaching the northwest Gulf of Mexico Coast Friday morning,

The ongoing impressive marine heat wave (MHW) across the Norwegian Sea continues and the persistent high-pressure ridge well-correlated to this feature remains locked-in across Northwest Eurasia according to the ECMWF “monthlies”.