The overnight GFS Operational Model indicates a frigid arctic outbreak into the U.S. in the 11-15 day period. The U.S. gas population weight heating degree day forecast is a whopping 288 HDD for Feb. 5-11.

The highly volatile GFS Operational model indicates a near-perfect set-up to generate Canadian arctic air likely to pour into the U.S. in 2 weeks. The GFS is on its own. Other models are not generating this pattern. A close watch on other models to watch trends toward the GFS solution.

The updated NCEP CFS V2 indicates La Nina continues with moderate intensity through April and intensifies to a “strong” La Nina the second half of the year. The NCEP CFS V2 forecast is in opposition to most other forecast models which favor weakening La Nina in 2021.

Forecast models are in good agreement on a cold spike striking the Northeast U.S. Thursday night/Friday morning and lasting through next weekend. The peak of cold is Friday morning through Saturday morning when very cold temperatures are accompanied by high wind producing extreme wind chill.