An intense upper-level low-pressure system southwest of South America is compensated by an upper ridge with two centers either side of South America. In-between high-pressure areas, a low-pressure area over Southwest Brazil causes a streak of heavy rain during the past 30 days across a previous drought zone.

The skill scores during the medium range by primary forecast models indicate ECM ENS is the top model. Recently, ECM extended from 10 to 15 days. Skill scores for ECM will be added for ECM in the 11-15-day period soon. Data is provided by CWG/SVWM.

Both the 12Z GFS and ECM project a tropical cyclone generating in the Caribbean Sea later this week, meandering while intensifying for a few days, and turning northwest into the southeast Gulf early next week before a right turn to southwest Florida by middle of next week. Next Wednesday, the GFS indicates a category-3 major hurricane rapidly approaching the southwest Florida Coast.

In the subsurface, the cool fuel to up-well to the surface and cause La Nina onset is trending weaker. The anomalous cool water in the equatorial East Pacific is about half (or less) the intensity of most La Nina episodes.