The skill scores during the medium range by primary forecast models indicate ECM ENS is the top model. Recently, ECM extended from 10 to 15 days. Skill scores for ECM will be added for ECM in the 11-15-day period soon. Data is provided by CWG/SVWM.

Both the 12Z GFS and ECM project a tropical cyclone generating in the Caribbean Sea later this week, meandering while intensifying for a few days, and turning northwest into the southeast Gulf early next week before a right turn to southwest Florida by middle of next week. Next Wednesday, the GFS indicates a category-3 major hurricane rapidly approaching the southwest Florida Coast.

In the subsurface, the cool fuel to up-well to the surface and cause La Nina onset is trending weaker. The anomalous cool water in the equatorial East Pacific is about half (or less) the intensity of most La Nina episodes.

The 5-day forecast has a different flavor this morning. Rafael remains forecast to stay well offshore. However, the storm slows down in the west-central Gulf of Mexico and is susceptible to a period of southwest shear ahead of a Central U.S. trough to briefly push Rafael northeastward over the weekend before lower atmospheric steering on the east side of a Mexico high pressure area guides Rafael back toward the southwest.