March 2021 was another warm month ranking 14th warmest in the 1895-2021 climatology. The North-central U.S. ranked in the “much above” normal category while the remainder of the U.S. (except the Great Basin, California and the Southwest) were warmer than normal. North Dakota came close to a record warm March.

The ECMWF 14-day MJO forecast indicates an eastward shift away from Australia. The transition indicates gradually less wet risk to Australia (especially the north coast) and a slight increase in wet risk for South America (by mid-month). The influence on the U.S. a shift from short-term warmth to a cooler medium-range forecast.

A significant predictor for numbers of the most intense storms is the presence of warmer-than-normal deep tropics ocean water as measured by the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index. During the past 25 years the North Atlantic tropics have typically been somewhat warmer than normal during the core of the tropical cyclone season.

The preliminary outlook indicates MAY-SEP 2021 is hotter than last year as the average of the U.S. cities CDD forecast is about 112% of the 30-year normal compared to just-under 109% last year. Meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) is not quite as hot as last year.