For the first time since earlier in the year, the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is moderately intense AND transitional. Implied is the slow demise of a tendency for a highly amplified trough/ridge pattern in the middle latitudes as supported by the 15-day global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) forecast which maintains the negative index but with less amplitude.

All forecast models are agreeable on a building high pressure ridge which delivers a hot mid-October to Australia. On the northern fringe of the ridge, monsoon rain affects northwest/north continent. However, East/Southeast Australia is very dry.

The latest North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) 15-day forecast reveals an evolving moderate-to-strong negative phase usually causal to a blocking high pressure over Greenland and a compensating upper trough into the Northeast U.S. Forecast models have resisted that forecast solution over the weekend, however, at 12Z today, the GFS follows the -NAO guide.

Climate forecasts indicate wetter weather ahead for the Brazil drought area in Q4/2025. The ECM week 3-4 forecast projects a wet anomaly across the drought area. The latest Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) forecast indicates an emerging moderate-strength phase_8 which supports a wetter climate shift for South America, specifically Brazil, by week-3.