The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for weeks 4-6 ahead continue to favor a mild climate, especially in the East. The consensus of operational models are trending colder, near the 10-year normal, for the week ending January 8th. So…operational models are pointing toward a colder regime whereas “weeklies” ignore that shift to maintain the warmth. Two AI models are cold in the 3-4-week period.

The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook is updated. The forecast indicates drought expansion for much of the South U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic region. Drought erosion or dissipation is projected for the Interior Northwest and Midwest/Mid-South U.S.

The stratospheric warming event of mid-November to mid-December is dissipating. The warming event took place on the American side of the North Pole and spawned a polar vortex in North America causing the early meteorological winter 2025-26 arctic outbreak across the eastern states. Forecast models indicate the cold stratosphere across Eurasia expands cross-polar into North America later this month.

During the past week, the Nino34 and Nino3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) regions across the east-central and east equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled to the second strongest level of the weak late 2026 La Nina episode. The central equatorial Pacific and off the northwest coast of South America are near normal. Of interest is the appearance of a Kelvin Wave shifting east of the Dateline during early December.