The latest 6-week U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast maintains the warm spike for Nov. 14-20 followed by a colder trend (by operational model consensus) for the week ending Nov. 27th. The new week 4-6 forecast indicates December turns cold especially across the Northern States including the high energy demand Northeast U.S. The latest ECMWF week 4-6 upper air forecast supports the cold HDD projections as a chilly (snow producing) upper trough originates in the Northeast and elongates westward along the U.S./Canada Border.

Peak wind gusts are near 50 mph this morning across the Ohio Valley increasing to 50-55 mph this evening across the central/northern Appalachian Mountains toward NYC and New Jersey and roaring past South/East New England with gusts to 65 mph possible late tonight. NYC, Hartford, Boston and across Cape Cod could see significant power outages!

During the past 30 days, the ECM ENS and 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS have finished 1st and 2nd forecasting the weather pattern (500 MB anomalies) for days 6-10. In the 11-15-day period, the top two forecasters are ECM ENS and GFS ENS.

After a drier than normal month of October for much of Brazil, a wetter risk is presented in November for some (not all) parts of Brazil as a strong negative Antarctic oscillation fades and transient Madden Julian oscillation shifts eastward.