November has been cooler than normal across much of Australia due to a semi-permanent upper trough centered southeast of Australia. The upper trough remains in place well through DEC-25. The upper trough inspires wet risk on the North and East Coast while west of the trough a dry and increasingly hotter-than-normal weather pattern emerges in DEC-25.

Combining equally the GFS and ECM produces a dry and hot forecast across Argentina while East Brazil is wetter than normal. An interruption in this (new) pattern appears in the 6-10-day forecast as widespread rain affects both Argentina and Brazil.

The chart to remember, heading into the weekend, is the 12Z GFS snow depth forecast for day-13 (Dec 3rd). Unlike the over-forecasting of snow tendency of the GFS (and ECM), snow depth forecasts are conservative and (more) reliable. On Dec. 3rd the 12Z GFS projects substantial snow cover pushing southward through the Great Plains and across New England.

The latest NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates expanding drought from the Southwest U.S. across the 4-Corners region and Western Texas plus into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Southeast U.S. The Florida Peninsula is added to the developing drought forecast. Drought erosion is indicated across the northeast quadrant of Texas northeastward to the Midwest States. New England drought also eases. The Northwest U.S. drought is forecast to weaken (and end in some locations). Except for south coastal areas, drought development in California is not expected.