La Nina’s SSTA observations in the Nino regions near and east of the Dateline are fluctuating each week as La Nina classification is “unsteady”. The upper ocean heat in February indicates warming took place implying the subsurface cool waters to sustain La Nina is diminishing.

We’ve watched the GFS project arctic air for the extended-range for about one week generally indicating high intensity but mostly confined to the Central U.S. Last night the GFS indicated the arctic air may stretch into the East with intensity but most models continued to doubt that scenario. This afternoon the ECMWF forecast projects super cold arctic air into the central U.S. next weekend shifting east and southeast with authority for early next week.

The overnight GFS Operational Model indicates a frigid arctic outbreak into the U.S. in the 11-15 day period. The U.S. gas population weight heating degree day forecast is a whopping 288 HDD for Feb. 5-11.

The highly volatile GFS Operational model indicates a near-perfect set-up to generate Canadian arctic air likely to pour into the U.S. in 2 weeks. The GFS is on its own. Other models are not generating this pattern. A close watch on other models to watch trends toward the GFS solution.