Yesterday’s Climate Impact Company revised month 1-3 climate outlooks (which added January) caused gas population weight HDD projections to trend higher. The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season is now very close to the (colder) 30-year normal.

The arc of heavy to excessive rainfall associated with Nicholas shifts into Louisiana the next 2-3 days as the storm weakens to a depression and eventually dissipates in Louisiana. Life threatening flash flooding persists despite the storms inland location.

A tropical system emerging in the Bay of Campeche is possible over-the-weekend. If so, a northwest turn toward the southern Texas coast is expected. The western Gulf of Mexico water surface is somewhat warmer than normal and could lead to a suddenly rapid intensification of a tropical system.

In today's midday update the 12Z GFS indicated a potential major hurricane east of Florida in the 11-15 day period. Models have shown a consistent risk of a tropical feature in this zone at this time much of this week.