NOAA/CPC is indicating a fairly robust stratospheric warming event centered on the U.S. East Coast at the end of March. Although not in the ideal polar location, the event would be enough to cause the troposphere below to cool.

A busy Sunday across the U.S. featuring adverse last-gasp winter weather events. A major Central U.S. storm continues…heavy snows across the central Rocky Mountains including blizzard conditions in Wyoming to western Nebraska while flooding from weekend rains continues across Kansas and Missouri.

Significant warming took place last week across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Nino34 SSTA region warmed 0.5C to -0.7C which is just-below the La Nina threshold. The Nino3 and Nino12 regions warmed to neutral phase.

The cold season started with a warm November followed by a December which was also warm coming-in near the 10-year normal. Mid-winter was very warm, almost as warm as November regarding the HDD departure. February is the only cold month of the season while March is projected warmer than normal. The tendency for extremes dominated as observed with a very warm November and January and a frigid February.