High focus on ERCOT (and everywhere else) for next week’s arctic outbreak. In Texas, the outbreak lasts January 19-24 and peaks on January 21. Texas will add snow and ice storm concern during that time. Note the ECM ENS 6-10-day forecast of <0F risk!

Extremely dry weather has anchored over Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil during early-to-middle January and the 10-day rainfall outlook from GFS maintains the dry signature as soil moisture conditions deteriorate rapidly.

As a review, the Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) can offer early warning of agricultural drought, hydrologic drought, and fire-weather risk by providing near-real-time information on the emergence or persistence of anomalous evaporative demand in a region.

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast remains unchanged and still cold through next week. However, the forecast is considerably colder for the week of Jan. 17-23 as previously forecast moderation is not likely. The cold HDD forecasts remain through Jan. 30. In February, HDD forecasts collapse as the East turns warmer.