On and off Great Plains wet weather for late October/early November is reliant on evolution of a negative phase Pacific North America (-PNA) index pattern. If -PNA develops, an upper trough cools the West and forces southerly flow out of the western Gulf of Mexico to interact with cold fronts in the Great Plains and cause rainfall.

Weak upper trough cuts off over Southwest Brazil propelling a heavy rainfall episode this week through next week. Significant relief to the long-term drought is certainly implied. ECM "weeklies" ease but do not end the Southern Brazil into early November. Northern Brazil becomes the focus of hot and dry weather.

Transient Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) alters the prevailing jet stream pattern in the mid-latitudes that cause our sensible weather. The MJO is active heading toward November. Snow cover is ahead of schedule in Asia, typical of the past decade caused by cold wind across the open water north of the continent.

Wetter forecasts appeared over the weekend for the Great Plains and East-central U.S although models were inconsistent. The GFS is increasingly confident that wet weather appears across the western and northern Great Plains in the 6-10-day period shifting eastward and boldly across the Midwest States in the 11-15-day forecast.