Rainfall Needed to Neutralize Dry Palmer Drought Severity Index is Increasing Across The Eastern U.S.

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Chart of the day: Rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index is increasing across the Eastern U.S.

Discussion: Rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is increasing dramatically across the eastern half of the U.S. Additionally, Northern California rainfall deficits have redeveloped quickly.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid June 18-22, 2023 (24-hour change)

Discussion: Wet weather centered on Virginia to Georgia sharply suppresses heat risk. The Texas hot weather regime trend is stronger. The Northwest States remain quite cool.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid June 23-27, 2023 (24-hour change)

Discussion: GFS trends warmer since yesterday. The warmer change is due to influence of a possible subtropical rainfall event shifting northward on the U.S. East Coast. The Texas heat will become increasingly intense. The Northwest and East warm to near normal.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: In the 6-10-day period the Midwest is dry, and that dryness continues in the 11-15-day period causing drought in that region to worsen. Wet weather is indicated in the 6-10-day period across the Northwest and Southeast/Mid-Atlantic regions. In the 11-15-day period, wet weather emerges in the western Great Plains.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid June 28-July 2, 2023 (previous below)

Discussion: ECM stresses anomalous warmth across the North-central into the Midwest U.S. while the Texas heat remains but eases back slightly. Wet weather risk is evident in the Northwest and Gulf of Mexico region only.