Rainfall Needed to Neutralize Dry Palmer Drought Severity Index is Increasing Across The Eastern U.S.

Northwest Air Flow Out of Canada Continues to Push Smoke and Haze Into Northeast U.S.
06/12/2023, 3:17 pm EDT
U.S. Population Weight CDD Forecast MAY-SEP 2023 Less Warm Than Last 3 Years
06/14/2023, 7:30 pm EDT
Northwest Air Flow Out of Canada Continues to Push Smoke and Haze Into Northeast U.S.
06/12/2023, 3:17 pm EDT
U.S. Population Weight CDD Forecast MAY-SEP 2023 Less Warm Than Last 3 Years
06/14/2023, 7:30 pm EDT
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Chart of the day: Rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index is increasing across the Eastern U.S.

Discussion: Rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is increasing dramatically across the eastern half of the U.S. Additionally, Northern California rainfall deficits have redeveloped quickly.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid June 18-22, 2023 (24-hour change)

Discussion: Wet weather centered on Virginia to Georgia sharply suppresses heat risk. The Texas hot weather regime trend is stronger. The Northwest States remain quite cool.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid June 23-27, 2023 (24-hour change)

Discussion: GFS trends warmer since yesterday. The warmer change is due to influence of a possible subtropical rainfall event shifting northward on the U.S. East Coast. The Texas heat will become increasingly intense. The Northwest and East warm to near normal.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: In the 6-10-day period the Midwest is dry, and that dryness continues in the 11-15-day period causing drought in that region to worsen. Wet weather is indicated in the 6-10-day period across the Northwest and Southeast/Mid-Atlantic regions. In the 11-15-day period, wet weather emerges in the western Great Plains.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid June 28-July 2, 2023 (previous below)

Discussion: ECM stresses anomalous warmth across the North-central into the Midwest U.S. while the Texas heat remains but eases back slightly. Wet weather risk is evident in the Northwest and Gulf of Mexico region only.