Latest U.S. Gas Population Weight Winter HDD Rankings Forecast

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The cool-to-cold season 2021-22 starts off exactly the opposite of last year with a warm October and increasingly colder November. December and January also look colder than last year.

November looks much colder after a warm October. December a little colder.

OCT-21NOV-21DEC-21JAN-22FEB-22MAR-22
FCST206589856935776573
LAST206545845949747573
2020-21294466809876892567
Rank21511996
10-YR267561797909784610
20-YR280545837925797616
30-YR311589885991819642

Table 1: Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast through March 2022. The October HDD value of 206 is verified and ranked 2nd warmest of the past 20 years. The November forecast is revised colder to 589 HDD and now ranks 15 whereas 20 is the coldest (of the past 20 years).

Discussion: Climate Impact Company has updated the month 1-4 outlook valid December 2021 to February 2022. The attendant gas population weight HDD values are also updated. The November outlook is revised MUCH COLDER to the 30-year normal (589) and now ranks 6th coldest of the past 20 years. Additional colder adjustments are possible. The December forecast also edges slightly colder (845 to 856 HDD) and ranks middle of the road for the past 20 years and is close to the 20-year normal. Mid-winter looks milder as HDD declines to 935 (from 949 HDD). The January forecast is also similar to the 20-year normal. February is adjusted colder especially in the West. The previously very mild February forecast (747 HDD) is adjusted colder to 776 HDD which is close to the relatively mild 10-year normal. The March outlook is mild and unchanged from previous.

Fig. 1: Monthly rankings of gas population weight HDD for the U.S. compared to last year.

Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season in the U.S. compared to the 30-year and 10-year climatology.