Latest U.S. Gas Population Weight Winter HDD Rankings Forecast

Unusually Dynamic Global SSTA Pattern October 2021

11/04/2021, 5:06 am EDT

AG Market Hot Spot: Heavy rain Southeast Australia this week.

11/09/2021, 6:05 am EST

11/07/2021, 3:25 pm EST

November looks much colder after a warm October. December a little colder.

	OCT-21	NOV-21	DEC-21	JAN-22	FEB-22	MAR-22
FCST	*206*	589	856	935	776	573
LAST	206	545	845	949	747	573
2020-21	294	466	809	876	892	567
Rank	2	15	11	9	9	6
10-YR	267	561	797	909	784	610
20-YR	280	545	837	925	797	616
30-YR	311	589	885	991	819	642

Table 1: Climate Impact Company U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast through March 2022. The October HDD value of 206 is verified and ranked 2^nd warmest of the past 20 years. The November forecast is revised colder to 589 HDD and now ranks 15 whereas 20 is the coldest (of the past 20 years).

Discussion: Climate Impact Company has updated the month 1-4 outlook valid December 2021 to February 2022. The attendant gas population weight HDD values are also updated. The November outlook is revised MUCH COLDER to the 30-year normal (589) and now ranks 6^th coldest of the past 20 years. Additional colder adjustments are possible. The December forecast also edges slightly colder (845 to 856 HDD) and ranks middle of the road for the past 20 years and is close to the 20-year normal. Mid-winter looks milder as HDD declines to 935 (from 949 HDD). The January forecast is also similar to the 20-year normal. February is adjusted colder especially in the West. The previously very mild February forecast (747 HDD) is adjusted colder to 776 HDD which is close to the relatively mild 10-year normal. The March outlook is mild and unchanged from previous.

Fig. 1: Monthly rankings of gas population weight HDD for the U.S. compared to last year.

Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season in the U.S. compared to the 30-year and 10-year climatology.