AG Market Hot Spot: Heavy rain Southeast Australia this week.

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Fathering storms clouds today in Australia convene along a sharp cold front to produce excessive rainfall in Eastern Australia mid-to-late week followed by unseasonably cool to cold temperatures.

Highlight: Wet week ahead into Eastern Australia

Fig. 1: Australia satellite photo identifies a frontal zone across the southern continent with abundant moisture to the north ready to shift south into the frontal trough.

Discussion: A frontal zone stretches across southern Australia and the attendant rainfall will expand today to cover much of Southern Australia (Fig. 1). 24 hours from now the frontal zone has engaged tropical moisture to the north and more widespread/heavier rain evolves mostly over central continent and beginning on the East Coast. By 1200 GMT on Thursday the front has strengthened shifting into Eastern Australia and convenes heavy rain throughout the wheat crop zone in Southeast Australia northward across much of Queensland. A following unusually cool air mass is evident. By 1200 GMT Friday the front is offshore but residual heavy rain hangs back over eastern Victoria. The entire continent is unusually cool at this time. ECM forecasts 2-3 in. of rain across the eastern half of the wheat growing areas in east/southeast Australia with high spots of 4 in. possible (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: ECM 5-day rainfall forecast indicates heavy amounts across Eastern Australia.