Last Week Was Soaking Wet In Eastern Australia

AG Market Hot Spot: Heavy rain Southeast Australia this week.
11/09/2021, 6:05 am EST
Sharp Negative Phase North Atlantic Oscillation/Scandinavia Index
11/16/2021, 1:09 pm EST
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Highlight: Last week was soaking wet in Eastern Australia.

Fig. 1: Australia rainfall observed Nov. 8-14, 2021.

Australia discussion: Widespread heavy rain occurred last week in Australia (Fig. 1). The aerial coverage and intensity of the rainfall was likely the wettest in the seasonally wet climate pattern currently occupying the continent. Rainfall amount of 4-6 in. was common in southeast Queensland and (more) spotty in eastern New South Wales. The heavy rain affected northeast and far eastern wheat-growing areas of east/southeast Australia. The 15-day rainfall outlook is mostly dry this week while ECM offers possible heavy rain in coastal southeast continent in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 2). The GFS indicates possible important rain on the East Coast in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2-3: Australia rainfall forecast for days 6-10 (ECM) and 11-15(GFS).

South America discussion: The past 30 days have featured wet to very wet rainfall amount across Brazil with patchy dryness in Argentina (Fig. 4). The 15-day rainfall forecast remains similar to weekend outlooks: Wet Brazil and drier Argentina (Fig. 5). Of interest is 30-day verification scores indicating all models are too wet across Southeast Brazil in the medium-range.

Fig. 4-5: South America 30-day percent of normal rainfall and GFS ENS 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast.

U.S. discussion: The U.S. soil moisture condition is mostly dry Central U.S. and increasingly wet in the East (except Mid-Atlantic) and West Coast (Fig. 6). The 15-day outlook indicates a broad dry pattern across the U.S. while snow piles-up in Canada (Fig. 7).

Fig. 6-7: Percent normal soil moisture anomalies across the U.S. and the 15-day ECM ENS percent of normal precipitation outlook.