So Where Is The Cold Air?

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02/13/2024, 8:32 am EST
ENSO Predictability Comment
02/20/2024, 5:15 am EST
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Fig. 1-2: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast for the U.S.

Discussion: The 12Z GFS 6-10-day U.S. temperature anomaly forecast held steady with not much change maintaining a very warm signature for much of the U.S. (Fig. 1). However, the 11-15-day forecast was MUCH warmer for the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. (Fig. 2) causing a change of 50 HDD warmer compared to 24 hours ago for Feb. 23-29 (Table 1). So where is the arctic air? Russia is turning frigid with some of the big chill releasing toward China the second half of February (Fig. 3).

DatesHDD Forecast12-Hr Change24-Hr Change30-Year NML10-Year NML
Feb. 9-15



Feb. 16-22


Feb. 23-29



Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.

Fig. 3: The 12Z GFS northern hemisphere 15-day temperature anomaly forecast.