Charts of the day: No monsoon rains past 30 days SE Asia/India.
Discussion: The India/Southeast wet monsoon failed during mid-July to mid-August. Drought is developing across southern, western, and northern India. Drought continues in Thailand, parts of Vietnam, and Southern China. Conversely, parts of China have observed heavy rain and flooding.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid August 29-September 4, 2023: East-central rains otherwise dry.
Discussion: An upper trough may spawn thunderstorm activity across East-central India into early September while the remainder of the nation stays drier than normal. Intense heat is likely across northern areas.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid September 5-11, 2023: Mostly dry.
Discussion: Thundershowers affect Central India while elsewhere a drier than normal regime continues. Northwest India remains the hottest anomaly forecast zone.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid September 12-18, 2023: Widespread dryness.
Discussion: Most of India is hotter and drier than normal during mid-September.