A Super-warm Central/East U.S. for December 2021

U.S. Gas Population Weight HDD Forecasts for Winter Keep Getting Warmer
12/05/2021, 5:25 pm EST
Strong Cold Front East. Major Winter Storm West Coast.
12/11/2021, 10:48 am EST
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The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast by all models through Dec. 17-23 is ridiculously warm (Fig. 1). The trend since Monday is somewhat warmer. The warmest December in this century featured 640 HDD in 2015. At that time, December 2015 was the warmest on record which included the warmest Midwest and East on record. The December 2021 HDD forecast is in the 700 X 730 range based on current projections but is certainly trending warmer. December 2021 should be the 2nd warmest this century for the U.S. This follows a normally cold November after the 2nd warmest October of this century.

Fig. 1: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, compared to 24 hours ago and the 30-year/10-year normal.