ERCOT Cold Outbreak Later Next Week!

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Report
01/26/2022, 5:05 am EST
Warm Subsurface Kelvin Wave Plows into Cool East Pacific Waters Weakening La Nina
01/31/2022, 2:30 pm EST
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Great Plains snowstorm followed by ERCOT cold outbreak: The next arctic air mass plows into a slow-moving cold front in the south/east Great Plains into the middle of next week. The cold air arrival changes precipitation to a 24-to-36-hour snowfall across the central great Plains to the Midwest U.S. ECM indicates at least several in. of snow across Nebraska and Kansas with high spots of 6 in. (Fig. 1). Given the high wind generating in this event, blowing and drifting to 1-2 feet is likely. Heavier snow is forecast for northern Missouri to the Chicago area where ECM indicates potential for >10 in.

The attendant cold surge will roar into Texas with limited moderation due to the proximity of the fresh snow cover. Friday morning low temperatures are in the 20’s with wind across all of Texas except the extreme southern portion (Fig. 2) repeating Saturday morning with less wind (Fig. 3). High temperatures are in the 30’s to low 40’s across Texas next Friday after the chilly start to the day recovering to mostly 40’s on Saturday.

Fig. 1-3: ECM 48-hour snowfall forecast for a storm middle of next week (top) and following cold morning temperatures for Feb. 4-5 across Texas (bottom).