Hurricane Models And Ida Prior To Landfall

Gulf Of Mexico SST/SSTA Regime Ahead Of A Tropical Cyclone
08/26/2021, 8:39 am EDT
Ida Continues To Intensify Rapidly!
08/29/2021, 9:20 am EDT
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Highlight: Hurricane models indicate a major hurricane into Louisiana coast early Monday, possibly a category-4 major hurricane.

Fig. 1-3: HWRF/HMON maximum windspeed forecast for Hurricane Ida and the warm SSTA pattern feeding the intensity forecasts over the north/northwest Gulf.

Discussion: A full report issued by 8AM EDT. Thematic in today’s Ida forecasts will be the intensity off the Louisiana Coast for late Sunday into early Monday. The HWRF hurricane model indicates max wind speed of 118.7 mph just-prior to landfall very early Monday morning (Fig. 1). The HMON hurricane model indicates maximum wind speed of 134.3 mph while the storm is still offshore late Sunday afternoon (Fig. 2). The landfall forecast remains the central to east-central coast of Louisiana. NOAA/NHC has upgraded their forecast to indicate a minimal category-3 major hurricane at landfall. Hurricane models are stronger and HMON indicates a minimal category-4 major hurricane possibility. The sudden and rapid increase in intensity into the northern Gulf of Mexico is related to the very warm upper ocean heat (Fig. 3). SSTA are much warmer than normal south of Louisiana. More details shortly.