Summary of 2019 North Atlantic Seasonal TC Forecasts

Record Negative Antarctic Oscillation Developing
07/30/2019, 10:07 am EDT
MJO More Favorable for Tropics Later August
08/11/2019, 4:27 pm EDT
Show all

A summary of seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity issued initially in April and updated in June and August by the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Risk of U.K. and Climate Impact Company indicate each revision is slightly more active due to less inhibiting upper shear due to a weakening El Nino (compared to early forecasts) coupled with a warmer than normal North Atlantic basin especially just north of the tropics.

August Summary of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Discussion: A summary of seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity issued initially in April and updated in June and August by the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Risk of U.K. and Climate Impact Company indicate each revision is slightly more active due to less inhibiting upper shear due to a weakening El Nino (compared to early forecasts) coupled with a warmer than normal North Atlantic basin especially just north of the tropics. The seasonal activity totals include Tropical Storm Andrea and Hurricane Barry. Operational models indicate limited tropical cyclone risk the next 1-2 weeks implying the bulk of seasonal activity in 2019 occurs in late August to middle October.

 CSU

APR

TSR

APR

CIC

APR

CSU

JUN

TSR

JUN

CIC

JUN

CSU

AUG

TSR

AUG

CIC

AUG

TS131212131212141315
Hurr556665768
Int H223223224
ACE808184998997105100120

 Table 1: Summary of North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts by the Tropical Prediction Center at Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Risk/U.K. and Climate Impact Company from April, June and August.

 Current Consensus15-Year Normal30-Year Normal50-Year NormalLast

Year

TS14.015.313.612.015
Hurr7.07.57.06.38
Int H2.73.33.02.52
ACE108.3120.5115.796.8129

 Table 2: The August consensus forecast compared to normal and last year.

Fig. 1: North Atlantic basin seasonal forecast of accumulated cyclone energy by the Tropical Prediction Center at Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Risk/U.K. and Climate Impact Company from April, June and August.

Fig. 2: North Atlantic basin seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone activity by the Tropical Prediction Center at Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Risk/U.K. and Climate Impact Company from April, June and August.