Incoming Cold for Southeast Brazil This Week

Tropics/Subtropics Not Warming in the North Atlantic
07/19/2021, 9:37 am EDT
Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Outlook
07/29/2021, 2:38 pm EDT
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A major freeze for Southeast Brazil this week! The cold begins Wednesday morning but peaks Thursday morning with widespread -1C to -4C low temperatures. The chill is likely to linger into late week mornings.

South America Week 2-4 Outlook

Highlight: Incoming cold for Southeast Brazil this week.

Charts of the day: Cold outbreak Southeast Brazil!

Discussion: A cold surge rolls into Southeast Brazil tonight. Temperatures descend to -1C to -3C Wednesday morning. The cold peak is Thursday morning when more widespread -1C to -4C is expected. GFS ENS indicates widespread risk of <32F and <28F risk Interior Southeast Brazil. The cold repeats Friday morning although slightly less intense. A 3-day cold event for Southeast Brazil!

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid August 1-7, 2021:  Cool pattern eases slowly.

Discussion: The cool pattern slowly eases in Paraguay to Brazil. Most of Brazil into Argentina stays dry.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid August 8-14, 2021: Warm reversal.

Discussion: A warm-reversal for Paraguay/Brazil. The precipitation pattern stays mostly dry.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid August 15-21, 2021: Chance of rain.

Discussion: Largescale support for a wetter pattern and ECM identifies that risk for southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.