GFS Indicates Heavy Rain Coast/Heavy Snow Inland for Next Northeast Storm

Unexpected Record Hot November Across Australia
12/01/2020, 8:20 am EST
Global Soil Moisture Anomaly Analysis Reveals Dramatic Dryness North/South America While Much of Eurasia is Wet
12/08/2020, 8:03 am EST
Show all

The midday GFS indicates two important trends/changes. The axis of the heaviest rain shifts east and includes Richmond, VA to Dover, DE and across Rhode Island/southeast Massachusetts to coastal Maine. Many areas receive 3 in. of rain. The snowfall forecast increases. In New England 10-20 in. of snow is forecast with >2 feet in northern New England mountain areas.

New England snow storm (away from coast). Another storm Tuesday?

Fig. 1-2: The weekend precipitation amount forecast and snowfall outlook based on the just-received 12Z GFS.

Fig. 3: Mega-cluster ensemble indicates another deep trough on the East Coast Tuesday supporting another coastal storm.

Update on the Northeast storm: The midday GFS indicates two important trends/changes. The axis of the heaviest rain shifts east and includes Richmond, VA to Dover, DE and across Rhode Island/southeast Massachusetts to coastal Maine (Fig. 1). Many areas receive 3 in. of rain. The snowfall forecast increases. In New England 10-20 in. of snow is forecast with >2 feet in northern New England mountain areas (Fig. 2). The heavy snow is closer to the coast in the updated forecast. The maximum wind gusts are in the 40-50 mph range on the Mid-Atlantic coast, 50-60 mph the northern Mid-Atlantic coast and 65 mph on the eastern Massachusetts coast.

Another storm Tuesday? Operational models are unsure. However, the mega-cluster ensemble indicates upper air support for another coastal storm on Tuesday (Fig. 3). This time cold air is in-place for mostly snow from Virginia to New England.