Next Severe Weather Event for the U.S.

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Over-the-weekend severe weather produced 609 damage reports Sunday and 259 damage reports Saturday (a total of 868). The next event sets-up tomorrow in Texas to Missouri shifting into the Southeast Thursday.

Next Severe Weather Event

Next severe weather episode: A fetch of Gulf moisture into a frontal low pressure trough ignites severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon near and west of Dallas and tornadoes are likely by late day (Fig. 1). The tornado risk continues tomorrow night shifting toward northern Louisiana. On Thursday severe weather remains widespread across the Southeast U.S. with a tornado risk centered on Mississippi and Alabama (Fig. 2).

Fig. 1-2: NOAA/SPC severe weather outlook for Wednesday and Thursday.

The just-ended event: The late weekend severe weather event across the East U.S. amassed an incredible 569 wind damage reports that affected Ohio to New England southward to Florida (Fig. 3). 13 tornado reports were included. Earlier this past weekend 35 tornado reports were issued for the Mid-south U.S. (Fig. 4).

Fig. 3-4: Severe reports from over the weekend by NOAA/SPC.

The WED/THU and FRI/SAT rainfall: Heavy rains associated with severe thunderstorms begins tomorrow in Texas to the Upper Midwest (Fig. 5). Heavy rain shifts to MI/AL/TN on Thursday. Rainfall forecasts are conservatively in the 1-2 in. range but high spots of several in. (or more) can occur with strongest severe weather. The storm shifts into the East on Friday including severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida (Fig. 6).

Fig. 5-6: The NOAA/WPC 5-day precipitation forecast and where the next severe weather outbreak develops and migrates.