So. Europe Dry Trend Encounters Wet Weather Next 2 Weeks
Europe drought risk: The Rhine River at Kaub, Germany is lower than last year at this time (Fig. 1) which raises concern regarding another sharp descent if a dry climate emerges this summer season. The Europe Drought Observatory indicates dry soil moisture conditions are increasing and expanding across Southern Europe (Fig. 2). Latest forecasts indicate a wetter regime across the emerging drought area through the next 2 weeks (Fig. 3). The wet pattern fades the week of May 12-18.
Fig. 1: The Rhine River at Kaub, Germany is lower than last year this time (which was followed by sharp descent in river level caused by drought).
Fig. 2: The European Drought Observatory identifies strengthening dry zones across Southern Europe.
Fig. 3: The GFS OP 15-day percent of normal precipitation event indicates needed rains across Southern Europe.
Fig. 4: An upper trough is projected across the North Atlantic this summer season causing a downstream dry upper ridge over Europe/Western Russia JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 as indicated by the NMME precipitation probability forecast.