Southern Europe Dryness To Recieve Beneficial Rainfall

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The European Drought Observatory identifies widening dry soils across Southern Europe. However, forecast models indicate beneficial rains developing across this region into early May.

So. Europe Dry Trend Encounters Wet Weather Next 2 Weeks

Europe drought risk: The Rhine River at Kaub, Germany is lower than last year at this time (Fig. 1) which raises concern regarding another sharp descent if a dry climate emerges this summer season. The Europe Drought Observatory indicates dry soil moisture conditions are increasing and expanding across Southern Europe (Fig. 2). Latest forecasts indicate a wetter regime across the emerging drought area through the next 2 weeks (Fig. 3). The wet pattern fades the week of May 12-18.

Fig. 1: The Rhine River at Kaub, Germany is lower than last year this time (which was followed by sharp descent in river level caused by drought).

Fig. 2: The European Drought Observatory identifies strengthening dry zones across Southern Europe.

Fig. 3: The GFS OP 15-day percent of normal precipitation event indicates needed rains across Southern Europe.

Fig. 4: An upper trough is projected across the North Atlantic this summer season causing a downstream dry upper ridge over Europe/Western Russia JUL/AUG/SEP 2019 as indicated by the NMME precipitation probability forecast.