Bureau of Meteorology/Australia launches El Nino Alert.
Discussion: The Bureau of Meteorology/Australia issued an El Nino ALERT this morning. Most supportive of El Nino is the strong warming of the subsurface eastern equatorial Pacific very likely to cause a surge in El Nino intensity over the next month or two. But what follows that warm surge? Interestingly, the Bureau of Meteorology/Australia forecasts ending support for El Nino and the evolving moderate intensity lasts only a few months with neutral ENSO back by late northern hemisphere summer.
Risk management ALERT: The forecast by Bureau of Meteorology/Australia of neutral ENSO for northern hemisphere late summer/autumn indicates the North Atlantic tropical cyclone season will be more active than normal. If the North Atlantic warms as forecast by most dynamic models a very active season featuring above normal number of hurricanes will occur.
TREVOR Strikes Australia TWICE
A second TC – more intense than Trevor strikes near Port Hedland Saturday
Discussion: Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Trevor strikes northeast Australia today, weakens briefly crossing the northeast peninsula then re-emerges late this week north of Australia making a second landfall as a category 4 tropical cyclone in 96 hours.
A second tropical cyclone forming off the northwest coast of Australia will turn south striking Australia near or west of Port Hedland Saturday. This second system could be more intense than Trevor.