South America discussion: The next 5 days are the summer of 2022-23 flash drought test for Argentina. During this time, the Argentina drought area will receive no rain according to ECM (Fig. 1). Meanwhile, extreme heat develops over central and eastern Argentina extending north toward Paraguay (Fig. 2). The combination of shallow (Fig. 3) and deep layer soil moisture deficits in northeast/east portions of Argentina should lead to a flash drought condition. This set of ideal circumstances has reduced opportunity, the remainder of summer.
Fig. 1-3: The 5-day percent of normal rainfall and temperature anomaly forecast for Argentina/Brazil by the ECM and the daily soil moisture analysis.