Australia Bureau of Meteorology More Forcefully Projecting El Nino Risk by June

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Highlight: Western Australia and New Zealand heat wave. Southeast Australia stays wet.

Chart of the day: El Nino risk for mid-2023 increasing.

Discussion: Australia Bureau of Meteorology more forcefully indicates a sufficiently warm Nino34 SSTA to warrant El Nino by June.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 16-22, 2023: East/Northeast trend a little wetter.

Discussion: The outlook remains wet in the Southeast and Queensland trends wetter. Hot and dry weather stays across Western Australia.

 Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid January 23-29, 2023: Western Australia and New Zealand heat is impressive!

Discussion: Western Australia heat and dryness is becoming impressive. Also impressive, a New Zealand heat wave. Southeast Australia remains wet.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid January 30-February 5, 2023: Wet weather shifts westward.

Discussion: Staying cooler than normal with wet weather risk in the southeast portion of the continent while the West and New Zealand stay hot in this locked-in pattern.