Latest NOAA/CPC Long-lead Climate Outlooks; Hot Risk Most of U.S. Summertime

Discussion: The NOAA/CPC long-lead probabilistic climate forecasts are updated. The May 2024 outlook indicates above normal risk of warmer than normal temperature across the eastern half of the U.S. with highest probability in Texas and Michigan/Wisconsin (Fig. 1). The Northwest is also forecast warmer than normal. The precipitation probability forecast indicates wet climate risk across the Mid-south U.S. to the Southeast States with dryness limited to Arizona/New Mexico and parts of the Northwest States (Fig. 2).

Meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) 2024 remains forecast warmer than normal for all but North Dakota with highest hot weather probability likely from the Interior Northwest to Western Texas and in New England (Fig. 3). The precipitation outlook is biased wet in the East and Southeast U.S. while West-central States including the western Great Plains are drier than normal (Fig. 4).

Based on the climate forecasts through the next several months, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates New Mexico and western Texas drought expands northward and Northwest drought shifts eastward (Fig. 5). Midwest drought continues to erode.

The probabilistic precipitation forecast for AUG/SEP/OCT 2024 indicates wet risk across Florida and the Southeast U.S. Coast (Fig. 6). In this region, the core of the hurricane season brings coastal threats with probability of a coastal strike somewhat lower shifting westward toward Texas.

The meteorological winter 2024-25 forecast is a very La Nina-like milder than normal for the South U.S. and East States (Fig. 7).

Fig. 1-2: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast valid for May 2024.

Fig. 3-4: The NOAA/CPC temperature and precipitation probability forecast valid for JUN/JUL/AUG 2024.

Fig. 5: The NOAA/USDA seasonal drought outlook for the U.S. valid through July 31, 2024.

Fig. 6-7: The NOAA/CPC precipitation probability forecast for AUG/SEP/OCT 2024 and temperature probability forecast for next winter season.