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A long-term established drought across Turkey has expanded westward to Italy and Southeast Europe during summer 2021. The 15-day forecast indicates further westward expansion is possible as hot and dry weather emerges for the middle third of August.

Southern Europe hot/dry pattern ahead (with drought expansion).

Fig. 1: Most recent European Drought Observatory drought analysis for Europe.

Fig. 2: GFS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast across Europe.

Fig. 3: GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across Europe.

Discussion: The most recent European Drought Observatory drought analysis reveals the developing summer 2021 drought in many parts of Southeast Europe including Greece and Italy (Fig. 1). This drought area is a westward expansion of a long-term drought region already established in Turkey (and vicinity). The 15-day GFS forecast indicates the summer 2021 tendency for drought to expand westward into Southeast Europe may reach farther west over the next 2 weeks.

The GFS indicates rapidly evolving anomalous heat across all of Southern Europe this week lasting into the 11-15-day period (Fig. 2). Threshold forecasts indicate risk of >100F from Spain to Italy and all of Southeast Europe during the middle third of August. Additionally, the heat is accompanied by mostly dry weather (Fig. 3).

The supporting upper ridge pattern causing the hot and dry climate is likely to push westward to Western Europe later this month!