Fig. 1: “Rare” early season extreme heat event in Australia peaks THU/FRI/SAT.
Australia heat wave discussion: The Australia Bureau of Meteorology identifies the developing heat wave across Northern Australia as rare for this early in the season! The aerial coverage and risk BOTH peak during the 3-day period of Dec. 16-18 (Fig. 1). During that time maximum temperatures are well over 100F with very warm nights offering limited recovery. In fact, most of Australia is at >100F risk for the next 5 days (Fig. 2). The ECM 5-day temperature anomaly forecast identifies the extent of the heat (Fig. 3) and for the first time in quite a while Australia is forecast drier than normal for the remainder of this week (Fig. 4).
Fig. 2-4: The GFS ENS risk of >100F over the next 5 days and ECM 1-5-day temperature anomaly forecast and percent of normal rainfall outlook.