Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight CDD forecast for the 2023 warm season.
Discussion: The MAY-SEP 2023 U.S. population weight CDD forecast is adjusted (Fig. 1). The outlook trends slightly warmer. Note that the outlook is consistently warmer than the 30-year climatology but not as hot as the majority of the last 3 years through July followed by AUG/SEP forecasts which are similar. The ERCOT/PJM-East comparison generates consistent anomalous heat for Texas while PJM-East heat is delayed until July and persists through September (Fig. 2-3).
Fig. 2-3: The Climate Impact Company ERCOT and PJM-East population weight CDD forecast for the 2023 warm season.
In the medium-range forecast, if you’re looking for anomalous warmth, the mega-cluster ensemble identifies central North America as the target area (Fig. 4-5). Anomalous heat of importance is avoiding the East Coast, Gulf States, and California. Consequently, population weight CDD forecasts heading into June are not impressive (Fig. 6). In fact, the CDD forecast trends cooler since last Friday.
Fig. 4-5: The mega-cluster ensemble North America temperature anomaly forecast for the medium range.
Fig. 6: Population weight CDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparing with 48 hours ago and normal.