Madden Julian Oscillation Shifts Toward The Dateline

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The ECMWF 14-day MJO forecast indicates an eastward shift away from Australia. The transition indicates gradually less wet risk to Australia (especially the north coast) and a slight increase in wet risk for South America (by mid-month). The influence on the U.S. a shift from short-term warmth to a cooler medium-range forecast.

Discussion: The MJO has contributed significant weather to Australia the past 7-10 days including several heavy rainfall episodes and more recently Tropical Storm Seroja and Tropical Storm 27 both off the Australian northwest coast. The MJO has been semi-permanent at this longitude during the Australian tropical cyclone season leading to an above normal number of tropical lows (according to Australia Bureau of Meteorology). However, tropical storm total (7) is below normal (11) with one month to go in the season. The ECMWF 14-day MJO forecast indicates an eastward shift away from Australia. The transition indicates gradually less wet risk to Australia (especially the north coast) and a slight increase in wet risk for South America (by mid-month). The influence on the U.S. a shift from short-term warmth to a cooler medium-range forecast.