The Coldest Weeks Compared to Normal This Past Cold Season are in November and March

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Super Early March Chill Will Ease More Quickly

Discussion: March 1-7 remains forecast at +62 HDD anomaly for the week – the strongest cold anomaly of the 2018-19 cold season (Fig. 1). Note the previous peak was November 9-15 at +52. While early March is very cold the extended-range forecasts through the remainder of the month are adjusted warmer (Fig. 2) lead my milder East U.S. projections (Fig. 3).

Fig. 1: The cold season 2018-19 weekly HDD anomaly identifies cold peaks on the “tails” of the season in November and March.

Fig. 2: The updated 4-week U.S. HDD anomaly forecast indicates a less cold pattern ahead. Note the less cold adjustment March 8-14.

Fig. 3: The updated 4-week U.S. HDD anomaly forecast for regions of the U.S. identify the frigid North-central and Midwest forecasts this week but moderation follows, especially in the East.